With the euro facing one of the most
pivotal months in its 13-year history, traders and strategists
are more divided than at any time since 2011 over whether
officials will be able to keep the currency from tumbling.
At about $1.26, the 17-nation euro is 3.3 percent above the
$1.22 median year-end estimate of more than 50 analysts compiled
by Bloomberg, after the gap expanded to 3.8 percent last week.
The last time the euro exceeded the consensus by that much was
in July 2011, and it tumbled 9.4 percent in the next 10 weeks.
While traders are optimistic that
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will bolster confidence
in the euro with his plan to buy bonds of Spain and Italy, analysts said
those same measures are more likely to debase the currency.
Photographer: Hannelore Foerster/Bloomberg
Attachment: Ranking of Best Major Currency Forecasters
While traders are optimistic that European Central Bank
President Mario Draghi will bolster confidence in the euro with
his plan to buy bonds of Spain and Italy, analysts said those
same measures are more likely to debase the currency. After the
ECB meets this week, Germany’s Constitutional Court will rule on
the legality of a bailout fund, Greece’s institutional creditors
will decide if the country merits access to aid that would help
it stay in the European Union, and Dutch citizens get to vote on
parties including a group that wants to exit the bloc.
“The ECB’s approach is obviously an easing approach,”
Hans Redeker, head of currency strategy at Morgan Stanley in
London, said in a telephone interview on Aug. 28. “The central
bank is printing money and increasing the supply of euros, and
this implies that the currency will stay weak.”
Rising Euro
Redeker said the euro will probably drop 5.6 percent to
$1.19 by year-end. An advance to between $1.27 and $1.30 would
provide a good level at which to sell, he said.
The euro rose 0.1 percent to $1.2603 at 10:32 a.m. London
time after reaching $1.2638 on Aug. 31, the strongest level
since July 2. Against a basket of developed market peers,
Europe’s shared currency appreciated 0.4 percent last week,
according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, bringing
the monthly gain for August to 1 percent, its first advance
since March.
Not since July 26, 2011, when the difference was 5.6 U.S.
cents, has the euro exceeded year-end 2012 estimates by as much
as it did on Aug. 28. The currency declined from a close at
$1.4511 that day to a low of $1.3146 on Oct 4. As recently as
Aug. 2, traders were more bearish than strategists.
“The longer-term forces acting on the euro still suggest
it is probably going to remain an underperformer,” Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo & Co. in
New York, said in a telephone interview on Aug. 29. “We are
still looking at a euro-zone economy that is in recession,
compared with the U.S., which is growing slowly.”
Diverging Economies
The euro may climb to as high as $1.30 in late October as
Draghi’s bond-purchase program stabilizes Europe’s financial
markets, and then depreciate to $1.20 in a year as investors
focus more on the economic underperformance relative to the U.S.
and the need for more economic stimulus to boost growth, said
Bennenbroek, whose company was the most-accurate forecaster in a
Bloomberg Rankings survey for the six quarters through June.
U.S. gross domestic product will expand 2.2 percent this
year, according to the median of 79 estimates compiled by
Bloomberg. The euro-area economy will contract 0.4 percent, a
separate set of forecasts shows.
Draghi gave the currency a boost on July 26 when he said he
would do “whatever it takes” to preserve the monetary union.
He backed that up on Aug. 2, saying the central bank may buy
short-maturity notes issued by euro-area nations, as long as the
region’s bailout fund makes purchases directly from the
countries’ treasuries and ties the aid to conditions.
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